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Earnings Expected Move Calculator

The move the options market is pricing into an earnings report — from the straddle or IV.

Input
Expected move
± $8.60
± 8.60%
1 SD range (~68%)
$91.40$108.60
2 SD range (~95%)
$82.80$117.20
Implied daily move ≈ ± $1.57.

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How to use it for earnings

Use the expiration that comes right after the earnings date. The most direct read is straddle mode: enter the stock price and the at-the-money call-plus-put price for that expiration, and the calculator returns the implied earnings move and the expected range. Alternatively, use the elevated pre-earnings implied volatility with the days remaining.

Watch the IV crush

Implied volatility runs high going into earnings and collapses immediately after — the well-known IV crush. That’s why buying options into earnings can lose even when the stock moves your way: the move has to beat the expected move and the volatility drop. The expected move is exactly the bar the stock has to clear.

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Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the expected move for earnings?

Use the options that expire just after the earnings date. The at-the-money straddle price for that expiration is the cleanest read on the earnings expected move, because it prices in the event directly. You can also use the elevated pre-earnings implied volatility with days to expiration.

Why is implied volatility high before earnings?

Because an earnings report is a scheduled, binary event that can move the stock sharply. Option sellers demand more premium for that risk, which shows up as elevated IV — and that IV collapses (the “IV crush”) right after the report, once the uncertainty resolves.

Is the earnings expected move accurate?

It’s the market’s consensus, not a prediction. Stocks routinely move more or less than the implied amount on any single report. Over many earnings it’s a reasonable expectation, but treat any one event as a probability range, not a forecast.

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